Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Will the high expectations hurt the Cubs?

There is no question that a lot of people expect the Cubs to win the division again. The team has seemed to improve and the rest of the division hasn’t improved enough to contend with the Cubs. Last year, the Cubs won the division by default. This year, teams like Milwaukee, Houston, and Cincinnati have gotten a little better so the Cubs might not be able to back into a division championship. No big deal because the Cubs are the better team right?


Consider this:

It’s April and the 2008 season has begun. Almost every media outlet has picked the Cubs to make the playoffs and a few even have them as the favorite to win the NL. Clearly, the Cubs are no longer underdogs. However, the Cubs lose 3 close games to start the season. It’s only 3 games in a long season but a winning streak doesn’t immediately happen. Two weeks into the season, the Cubs are 4-8 and 4 games behind the 8-4 Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. It’s not just the team that’s doing badly, but some of the stars are struggling as well. Carlos Zambrano has a decent 3.45 ERA in 3 starts but his record is 1-2. In his last start, he lost despite pitching seven innings and allowing three runs. He could be 2-1 right now, but he’s 1-2 and that record doesn’t look Cy Young Award-caliber.

Alfonso Soriano in 50 ABs has a .222 BA. He has had four instances already this season in which he hit the ball hard for outs. Had those balls landed, Soriano would be hitting .300 right now. However, the fielders either made a nice catch or were in the right spot at the right time so Soriano has a mediocre .222 BA instead. Meanwhile, the media is going nuts. 4-8 isn’t terrible but the local media has already witnessed what slow starts did to the Chicago Bears and the Chicago Bulls. They pound Lou Piniella and the rest of the team with questions that range from “How can you guys improve?” to “Are you worried about how well the Brewers are doing?” The media is already asking Jim Hendry if he is thinking of making any deals. Hendry tells the media that he is not currently in discussion with any potential trades, but now some of the players are worried that they will be traded or released if the team doesn’t start playing better. The losing continues and the media continues to ask why this team is 7-15 instead of 15-7. The Cubs do eventually start playing better but it is a little late. The Cubs end the season in 2nd place, just 3 games behind the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers.

This is just an example and probably won’t happen, but it definitely could. Look how teams like the Chicago Bulls and Bears had such high expectations but the media started attacking them just 2 weeks into the season. The pressure was too large and they weren’t able to improve. Being the favorites can be a bad thing. A lot of times, it’s easier to be the underdog than being a favorite in which you are being criticized for every time you fail to do what is expected. The media was a little more understanding last year when the Cubs struggled because Piniella was in his first year, Soriano was trying to adjust to being on a new team, and the Cubs, despite getting a $300 million makeover, were still the defending last place team of the division. The media won’t be easy on the team this year if the 2008 Cubs struggle out of the gate. My point is that it is very important that the 2008 Cubs get off to a good start. If they don’t, I can almost guarantee you it will be ‘wait till next year’ for the Cubs.