Derrek Lee hit 35 home runs in 2009. Alone that looks impressive but how impressive is it really? One of the problem with baseball statistics is that they show you how much but it doesn't show how meaningful it is. Just by looking at the home run total, you can't tell how many of those 35 home runs occurred in close games and how many of them were hit in blow-outs. So I decided to break up his home runs and see which ones were actually useful and which were meaningless.
NOTE: Let me briefly describe the meaning of some of the following terms. Anytime I use the word "clutch", it means 7th inning or later. A rally home run would be a home run hit that results in the team trailing by 3 runs or less. An insurance home run would be a home run hit with a 3 run lead or less. A game-changing home run is any home run that gives the team the lead or ties the game. A low value home run is a home run hit with the team up by four runs or more or a home run that results in the team still trailing by four or more runs. A game winning home run is a home run that puts the team in the lead for the remainder of the game. And finally a meaningless home run is any home run hit in a loss or a home run in a win that was not really needed in order to win (the last part is somewhat of a judgment call).
Now that you know what each term means, here are the numbers I got for Lee:
Total Home Runs- 35
Home Runs in wins- 26
Home Runs in losses- 9
Game Winning Home Runs- 10
Game Changing Home Runs- 17
Clutch Game Changing Home Runs- 3
Rally Home Runs- 6
Meaningless Rally Home Run- 4
Insurance Home Run- 6
Clutch Insurance Home Runs- 3
Low Value Home Runs- 6
Meaningful Low Value Home Runs- 1
Meaningless Home Runs- 14
Solo Home Runs- 21
Two-run Home Runs- 9
Three-run Home Runs- 3
Grand Slams- 2
First of all, the 26 home runs in wins and nine home runs in losses does not mean the Cubs were 26-9 when Lee hit a home run. There were a few times in 2009 when Lee hit two home runs in one game.
I have determined that Lee hit 14 meaningless home runs which means 21 of his 35 home runs were meaningful in helping the Cubs win. The number that is very interesting is that Lee hit 17 home runs that either tied the game or gave the Cubs the lead. Three of them came in the 7th inning or later and 10 of them ending up producing the game winning runs. 60% of Lee's home runs were solo home runs which seems to be normal but only 14% of Lee's home runs were either a three-run home run or a grand slam.
Another thing that I noticed was that Lee had only six low value home runs and one of them were actually meaningful. That's an encouraging stat because even without doing any research, you can see that at least four of Lee's home runs in losses could have been meaningful home runs if the rest of the team performed well enough to win the game.
Overall, I'd say Lee made a pretty good impact with his home runs. 74% of his home runs came in wins and the majority of his home runs were meaningful which are stats you want to see when someone hits that many home runs.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The Cubs should have kept Milton Bradley
I'm saying this right now: Milton Bradley will hit good for the Seattle
Mariners and the Cubs offense will struggle in 2010 like they did in 2009. Milton Bradley hit .321 with a .436 OBP and a .563 SLG in 2008 with the Texas Rangers. According to Bill James, Bradley was one of just two American League hitters in 2008 who had an OBP over .400 and a SLG of .500 or more. The other was J.D. Drew of the Boston Red Sox who had a .408 OBP and a .519 SLG. However Drew's batting average was .280 that year which means Bradley was the only AL player that year to achieve the coveted .300/.400/.500 slash (BA/OBP/SLG). 2008 may have been Bradley's best season but certainly not Bradley's only good year. Bradley had an OPS over .800 in five of the previous six seasons before joining the Cubs. In fact, Bradley's OPS of .775 in 2009 with the Cubs was his lowest OPS since it was .722 in 2002. Yes that's right...2002. The most encouraging parts of Bradley's 2009 season with the Cubs was that his .378 OBP was actually above his career average of .371 and he had 470+ plate appearances in back-to-back years for the first time in his career. He also appeared in 120+ games in back-to-back years which is another career first. The Cubs kept Bradley healthy for the most part which is something he has struggled with for his whole career. In fact, Bradley was suspended on September 20, 2009 and ended up missing 16 games after he played his last game on September 17. Had he played in those 16 games, he would have played in 140 games for the first time since he played in 141 games in 2004.
I know Bradley had off and on the field issues with the Cubs. I know part of the reasons he failed is because he couldn't handle the pressure from the Chicago fans and media. However, the Cubs invested so much into him that I think they should have given him another chance. The pressure is not the only reason Bradley was frustrated. It was also because the Cubs were losing and he was hitting only .196 in the month of September. Bradley hit .308 with a .911 OPS in August. If he had continued to hit that well and the Cubs were still fighting for first place in September, maybe Bradley would be a lot more happy and maybe he would still be on the Cubs right now. But that didn't happen hence why Milton Bradley is on Mariners right now. If it did happen, I have no doubts Bradley would still be on the team right now. I think the team, the fans, and the media wanted to blame someone for the disappointing Cubs season in which they failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006 so they blamed Milton Bradley even though he's just one guy on a team of 25 players. I think all it would have taken was Bradley to be hitting decent and for the Cubs to be winning for Bradley to be still on the team. But again, that didn't happen and you can't play the what-if game.
What bothers me just as much as the Cubs giving up on Bradley too soon is who they actually got from the Seattle Mariners. The media and fans have praised the trade because the Cubs not only got rid of Bradley but were able to save about $6 million. The bad news is that the player they got in return is Carlos Silva. I'm going to ignore the fact that the Cubs owe Silva $16 million after the Mariners provided the Cubs with $9 million to help pay for the remaining $25 million left on Silva's contract. What bothers me more than that is that Silva hasn't been very good lately and that's saying it nicely. Silva had a 8.60 ERA in 30.1 innings in 2009. People have said that Silva was hurt during that year and that I should not get too concerned about that year so I won't. Instead, I'll bring up his 2008 season in which he went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA in 28 starts. And I thought Jason Marquis's 14-16 season with a 6.02 ERA in the year before he joined the Cubs was bad. 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA?! And the Mariners gave this guy a $48 million, four year contract? Wow and it's not even like he was very good before he joined the Mariners. In the season before the Mariners signed him, he went 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA with the Minnesota Twins. That's not a bad year but it is not the year that should make you want to spend $48 million on the guy. I'm guessing that Seattle thought he would pitch a lot better the next season but clearly that did not happen. The Cubs saved $6 million but now they got a terrible pitcher. If the Cubs are content with saving $6 million, they should make sure Silva does not pitch a single inning for the Cubs. Seriously. Have him clean the clubhouse or something. Have him go to Dunkin' Donuts to pick up some donuts for Jim Hendry. Just don't have him pitch...at all.
It's early so I have no idea how this will turn out but right now, I'm worried. Something I have not mentioned yet is that the Cubs didn't exactly have a great offense last year. Bradley's departure leaves the Cubs with just three starters who had a OBP of .350 or higher in 2009. The World Series Champion New York Yankees had eight starters with an OBP of .350 of higher in 2009. Plus, Bradley is a switch-hitter and the Cubs wanted more players capable of hitting left-handed in the lineup so there is another problem the Cubs will need to fix. Meanwhile, the pitching looked really solid last year and the Cubs might have potentially weakened that department by adding one of the worst pitchers in baseball. So really this helps the Cubs get rid of a player they no longer wanted and saved them some money but really I can't see how the Cubs are more likely to win the World Series now than they were last week. They need to make some moves and add some more players. We'll see what happens and it should be another "interesting" season like always. But pay close attention to the Cubs' offense and what Bradley is doing in Seattle. Hopefully Bradley won't have a .900 OPS and the Cubs won't be saying, "Wow, it would be really nice to have Milton Bradley right now." Don't think for one second that the Cubs will rather have no off the field problems than a productive player. Manny Ramirez of the Los Angeles Dodgers is usually causing trouble but as long as he is hitting 35 home runs and driving in 100 runs, not many people in Los Angeles really cares. Let's just hope all goes well in Chicago this year and that Silva stays at least 100 feet away from the pitcher's mound.
Mariners and the Cubs offense will struggle in 2010 like they did in 2009. Milton Bradley hit .321 with a .436 OBP and a .563 SLG in 2008 with the Texas Rangers. According to Bill James, Bradley was one of just two American League hitters in 2008 who had an OBP over .400 and a SLG of .500 or more. The other was J.D. Drew of the Boston Red Sox who had a .408 OBP and a .519 SLG. However Drew's batting average was .280 that year which means Bradley was the only AL player that year to achieve the coveted .300/.400/.500 slash (BA/OBP/SLG). 2008 may have been Bradley's best season but certainly not Bradley's only good year. Bradley had an OPS over .800 in five of the previous six seasons before joining the Cubs. In fact, Bradley's OPS of .775 in 2009 with the Cubs was his lowest OPS since it was .722 in 2002. Yes that's right...2002. The most encouraging parts of Bradley's 2009 season with the Cubs was that his .378 OBP was actually above his career average of .371 and he had 470+ plate appearances in back-to-back years for the first time in his career. He also appeared in 120+ games in back-to-back years which is another career first. The Cubs kept Bradley healthy for the most part which is something he has struggled with for his whole career. In fact, Bradley was suspended on September 20, 2009 and ended up missing 16 games after he played his last game on September 17. Had he played in those 16 games, he would have played in 140 games for the first time since he played in 141 games in 2004.
I know Bradley had off and on the field issues with the Cubs. I know part of the reasons he failed is because he couldn't handle the pressure from the Chicago fans and media. However, the Cubs invested so much into him that I think they should have given him another chance. The pressure is not the only reason Bradley was frustrated. It was also because the Cubs were losing and he was hitting only .196 in the month of September. Bradley hit .308 with a .911 OPS in August. If he had continued to hit that well and the Cubs were still fighting for first place in September, maybe Bradley would be a lot more happy and maybe he would still be on the Cubs right now. But that didn't happen hence why Milton Bradley is on Mariners right now. If it did happen, I have no doubts Bradley would still be on the team right now. I think the team, the fans, and the media wanted to blame someone for the disappointing Cubs season in which they failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006 so they blamed Milton Bradley even though he's just one guy on a team of 25 players. I think all it would have taken was Bradley to be hitting decent and for the Cubs to be winning for Bradley to be still on the team. But again, that didn't happen and you can't play the what-if game.
What bothers me just as much as the Cubs giving up on Bradley too soon is who they actually got from the Seattle Mariners. The media and fans have praised the trade because the Cubs not only got rid of Bradley but were able to save about $6 million. The bad news is that the player they got in return is Carlos Silva. I'm going to ignore the fact that the Cubs owe Silva $16 million after the Mariners provided the Cubs with $9 million to help pay for the remaining $25 million left on Silva's contract. What bothers me more than that is that Silva hasn't been very good lately and that's saying it nicely. Silva had a 8.60 ERA in 30.1 innings in 2009. People have said that Silva was hurt during that year and that I should not get too concerned about that year so I won't. Instead, I'll bring up his 2008 season in which he went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA in 28 starts. And I thought Jason Marquis's 14-16 season with a 6.02 ERA in the year before he joined the Cubs was bad. 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA?! And the Mariners gave this guy a $48 million, four year contract? Wow and it's not even like he was very good before he joined the Mariners. In the season before the Mariners signed him, he went 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA with the Minnesota Twins. That's not a bad year but it is not the year that should make you want to spend $48 million on the guy. I'm guessing that Seattle thought he would pitch a lot better the next season but clearly that did not happen. The Cubs saved $6 million but now they got a terrible pitcher. If the Cubs are content with saving $6 million, they should make sure Silva does not pitch a single inning for the Cubs. Seriously. Have him clean the clubhouse or something. Have him go to Dunkin' Donuts to pick up some donuts for Jim Hendry. Just don't have him pitch...at all.
It's early so I have no idea how this will turn out but right now, I'm worried. Something I have not mentioned yet is that the Cubs didn't exactly have a great offense last year. Bradley's departure leaves the Cubs with just three starters who had a OBP of .350 or higher in 2009. The World Series Champion New York Yankees had eight starters with an OBP of .350 of higher in 2009. Plus, Bradley is a switch-hitter and the Cubs wanted more players capable of hitting left-handed in the lineup so there is another problem the Cubs will need to fix. Meanwhile, the pitching looked really solid last year and the Cubs might have potentially weakened that department by adding one of the worst pitchers in baseball. So really this helps the Cubs get rid of a player they no longer wanted and saved them some money but really I can't see how the Cubs are more likely to win the World Series now than they were last week. They need to make some moves and add some more players. We'll see what happens and it should be another "interesting" season like always. But pay close attention to the Cubs' offense and what Bradley is doing in Seattle. Hopefully Bradley won't have a .900 OPS and the Cubs won't be saying, "Wow, it would be really nice to have Milton Bradley right now." Don't think for one second that the Cubs will rather have no off the field problems than a productive player. Manny Ramirez of the Los Angeles Dodgers is usually causing trouble but as long as he is hitting 35 home runs and driving in 100 runs, not many people in Los Angeles really cares. Let's just hope all goes well in Chicago this year and that Silva stays at least 100 feet away from the pitcher's mound.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Jay Cutler is still the franchise quarterback of the Bears
It upsets me that the media has been calling Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler a huge disappointment. Someone on the radio today said that before the season started, 19 touchdowns and 22 interceptions were not the stats people in Chicago were expecting. Is he right? Of course he is. When I found out the Bears got Cutler, I was excited. I absolutely expected Cutler to have a better year than the year he is having right now. That said, I am not surprised that Cutler's numbers are bad. Jay Cutler has a mediocre offensive line blocking for him giving him very little time to get his feet set. When he does have time, his receivers either can't get open or they run the wrong route. Wide receiver Johnny Knox has been impressive but only when Cutler has time and when Knox is running past the defenders. Other than that, Knox isn't really that great. He just happens to be so fast that he can get open by simply being faster than everyone else. Take away his speed and he may not be on the Bears roster right now.
It's not just the wide receivers or the offensive line. It's the running game too. Bears running back Matt Forte has been disappointing. In his defense, a lot of that is because of the fact the offensive line isn't blocking for him but not being able to run the ball has hurt Jay Cutler. Teams are expecting the pass. Cutler can't do short and safe passes because most of the time the Bears defense has allowed so many points that the Bears need to score points and to score points you need to gain a lot of yards. So instead of attempting safe passes, Cutler has to throw down the field and make some risky passes and by the way, the defense is expecting the pass because the Bears can't run the ball. Cutler has thrown more passes than any quarterback in the NFC. It's not a big surprise that Cutler is throwing a lot of interceptions. Why isn't Brett Favre throwing more interceptions? He is known for throwing a lot of interceptions. Well let's see: he has a great running back, a fantastic offensive line, wide receivers that are talented, and a defense that plays really good. Basically Favre has everything Cutler doesn't have hence why Favre has thrown only six interceptions so far.
Most people in the media know all of about the lack of talent around Cutler and still say a lot of the blame goes on Cutler. I don't blame Cutler at all. He has poor talent around him and his yards thrown this year is among the top in Bears' history. Everyone saw what Cutler did in Denver with a good offensive line and good wide receivers. If the Bears can get their team to look similar to the team Cutler had in Denver, Cutler will look like the pro bowl quarterback he is.
It's not just the wide receivers or the offensive line. It's the running game too. Bears running back Matt Forte has been disappointing. In his defense, a lot of that is because of the fact the offensive line isn't blocking for him but not being able to run the ball has hurt Jay Cutler. Teams are expecting the pass. Cutler can't do short and safe passes because most of the time the Bears defense has allowed so many points that the Bears need to score points and to score points you need to gain a lot of yards. So instead of attempting safe passes, Cutler has to throw down the field and make some risky passes and by the way, the defense is expecting the pass because the Bears can't run the ball. Cutler has thrown more passes than any quarterback in the NFC. It's not a big surprise that Cutler is throwing a lot of interceptions. Why isn't Brett Favre throwing more interceptions? He is known for throwing a lot of interceptions. Well let's see: he has a great running back, a fantastic offensive line, wide receivers that are talented, and a defense that plays really good. Basically Favre has everything Cutler doesn't have hence why Favre has thrown only six interceptions so far.
Most people in the media know all of about the lack of talent around Cutler and still say a lot of the blame goes on Cutler. I don't blame Cutler at all. He has poor talent around him and his yards thrown this year is among the top in Bears' history. Everyone saw what Cutler did in Denver with a good offensive line and good wide receivers. If the Bears can get their team to look similar to the team Cutler had in Denver, Cutler will look like the pro bowl quarterback he is.
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