Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Brady on the Bears vs. Grossman on the Pats

This is originally from a post I made at the chicagobears.com message board:

Let's pretend that Tom Brady played his entire 2007 season with the Bears and Rex Grossman played his entire 2007 season with the Patriots.

Let's look at how Tom Brady would do:

First of all, Brady does not have Randy Moss as his #1 target. Brady's go-to guy is Bernard Berrian. Berrian probably gets about 10 more catches with Brady as his QB and gets maybe 2 more TDs.

Berrian's 2006 stats: 81 catches 1085 yards 7 TDs

Better...but he's still no Randy Moss.

Brady is playing behind a weak o-line and gets sacked 40 times. Because the Bears have no running game, Brady has to pass more and the opponent defense often goes in dime package knowing the Bears have no running game. The 2 extra defenders in the secondary causes Brady to have an average completion %. The QB pressure affects him and he ends up throwing 5 more interceptions than he would on the Patriots. His number 2 receiver isn't Wes Welker...it's Mushin Muhammad. Tom Brady has Devin Hester but the O-Line does a poor job of giving Brady enough time to get set and throw it to Hester deep downfield. When Brady gets time, he makes his usual good throws, but remember he has Bears receivers now. Berrian runs the wrong routes a few times and Muhammad continues to drop passes.

Brady with the Patriots in 2007:
16 G 4806 yards 68.9% 50 TD 8 INT 21 sacks 300.4 yards/gm

Brady with the Bears in 2007:
16 G 4100 yards 63.5% 22 TD 13 INT 40 sacks 256.3 yards/gm

Now let's look at Rex Grossman:

Rex Grossman is living the good life. His has an athlete 6-4 wide receiver named Randy Moss, a new #2 wide receiver named Wes Welker who had productive seasons with the Dolphins, 3 other solid wide receivers (Stallworth, Gaffney, and Watson) in case Moss and Welker are covered, and he has Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk instead of Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson. It's hard to examine Rex Grossman using his 2007 stats. Not enough games played and the o-line was much better in 2006. Randy Moss had 23 TDs with Tom Brady. Tom Brady didn't magically turn Moss into a pro bowl receiver. Moss had similar stats in 2003 with 17 TDs on the Vikings. The QB was Daunte Culpepper. Rex Grossman and Culpepper have similar stats so Moss loses only 5 TDs with Rex as his QB. Welker had 112 catches and 1175 yards and 8 TDs with Brady. He had 67/687/1 with the Dolphins (QB: Joey Harrington for most of the season). Grossman is better than Harrington so Welker gets 75 catches for 780 yards and 5 TDs. The rest of the receivers under Brady scored 19 TDs. They score 10 with Rex.

Grossman with the Bears in 2006:
16 G 3193 yards 54.6% 23 TD 20 INT 21 sacks 199.6 yards/gm

Grossman with the Pats in 2007
16 G 4000 yards 63.5% 32 TD 10 INT 21 sacks 250 yards/gm

The point of this is to shown that Tom Brady isn't the greatest QB of all-time. Look at Brady's numbers before he got Moss, Welker, and Stallworth. My other point is that Rex Grossman isn't a bad quarterback. Grossman is a pro bowl QB with the Patriots.