Breaking down the Cubs-Sox series

Series Breakdown:

Game 1- Ted Lilly vs. John Danks

Cubs vs. Danks:

John Danks is a good pitcher. Only 3 of his starts haven't been quality starts. He is coming off a start against Colorado in which he allowed 0 ER and 5 hits in 6 innings. He isn't much of a workhorse. He has pitched 7 or more innings in a start only 2 times this season. His worst start was on April 9th against Minnesota when he allowed 7 ER and 3 walks in just 2.1 innings. But other than that start, he has been very good this year. In 11.1 innings against the offensively strong LA Angels, Danks has allowed just 2 ER.

Sox vs. Lilly:

Ted Lilly is the kind of pitcher who the Sox could struggle against. The Sox recently faced lefty Nate Robertson of the Detroit Tigers and he held the Sox to 3 ER in 6.1 innings. However, don't be surprised if the Sox get to Lilly. Lilly has had at least 4 rough starts this season. If Lilly has his stuff today, the Sox offense doesn't have much of a chance. If Lilly starts to struggle, the Sox could put crooked numbers on the scoreboard against him.

Prediction: Sox win a close one....Sox 5 Cubs 3

Game 2- Jose Contreras vs. Jason Marquis

Cubs vs. Contreras:

Jose Contreras has had a great season so far. His numbers don’t lie. His forkball has been a dominating out pitch for him. When Contreras gets ahead in the count, batters have little success against him. However, Contreras hasn’t been impressive in his last 2 starts. On June 10th against Detroit, he allowed more than 2 ER in a start for the first time since May 4th. Not only was it more than 2 ER, he allowed 6 ER and 13 hits. His most recent start was a quality one but he allowed 3 ER which is still more than he usually allows. For the second straight start, his ERA rose. His ERA has gone from 2.76 to 3.24 in 2 starts. He is still a good pitcher but he is starting to show he is capable of having a bad start. Now on a 2 game losing streak after being on a 4 game winning streak, Contrera’s confidence might have taken a shot. This is a good time for the Cubs to be facing Contreras.

Sox vs. Marquis:

In my opinion, it seems like the Sox are a great fastball hitting team but they are bad when they face someone whose plus-plus pitch isn’t a fastball. A guy like Jason Marquis with his sinker and splitter could really baffle the Sox. Marquis has been amazing in his last 2 starts. If Marquis throws strikes and doesn’t get too much of the plate, I really wouldn’t be surprised if the Sox scored only one or less runs off Marquis. The Sox offense can be bad enough that they can make any pitcher look like Cy Young.

Prediction: Cubs even the series….Cubs 5 Sox 2

Game 3- Ryan Dempster vs. Javier Vazquez

Cubs vs. Vazquez:

Some may consider him to be the ace of the staff, but right now Javier Vazquez doesn’t look like that pitcher. In his last 3 starts, he has allowed 4 ER or more in each start. His ERA which at the start of the month was 3.43 is now at 4.13. It has been a June swoon for Vazquez as his 7.27 June ERA might suggest. Like the Contreras breakdown, this is the right time for the Cubs to be facing Vazquez. Another positive for the Cubs is that this game will be a night game. Vazquez has a 4.86 ERA at night and has a .289 BAA (batting average allowed). At many times this year, Vazquez has looked like an All-Star pitcher but right now he looks mediocre.

Sox vs. Dempster:

If the Sox struggle against Marquis, they should consider not even showing up Sunday. Ryan Dempster will give the Sox problems. Dempster is great at getting teams to hit into outs and the Sox will be no exception. Like I said in the Marquis breakdown, Sox seem to struggle against pitchers who don’t rely on their fastball. Dempster’s splitter and slider is very good and I don’t think the Sox will do much against him. Oh and by the way, Dempster is 8-0 at Wrigley and the Cubs are 9-0 when Dempster makes a Wrigley Field start.

Prediction: All signs point towards a Cubs win in the rubber match….Cubs 6 Sox 1