Saturday, April 17, 2010

Bulls can beat the Cavs......assuming they don't get beat by the refs

I think the Chicago Bulls match-up with the Cleveland Cavs very nicely. Let's re-visit the four regular season games:

Game #1: Bulls win 86-85

This was an impressive win for the Bulls. It was on the road and both Shaquille O'Neal and LeBron James were in the lineup for the Cavs. Yes the Bulls still had John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas but neither had a great game. Salmons scored 14 points but his +/- score was -2 (meaning that the Bulls allowed two more points than they scored when Salmons was on the court). As for Thomas, he scored only six points and had just one rebound and one block in 12 minutes. Also, LeBron had a pretty good game scoring 25 points with seven rebounds and six assists. If the Bulls could be the Cavs on the road with LeBron having a good game, why can't they do it again in the playoffs?

Game #2: Cavs win 101-87

The Cavs won this one but the Cavs were at home so it was an expected win for the Cavs. LeBron scored 23 points with 11 assists. The good thing about this game was that the Bulls trailed by only one point at halftime. The bad thing was that the Cavs outscored the Bulls 29-15 in the 3rd quarter. If the Bulls are going to have a chance in this series, they can't allow the Cavs to have a big quarter especially in the second half. It resulted in a Bulls loss in this game and it will probably result in a loss if it happens in the playoffs. A big concern is can the Bulls score enough. The Bulls scored 86 in game one but were able to somehow hold Cleveland to 85 points. The defense couldn't do it for a second time and Cleveland scored over 100. The Cavs have other scorers besides LeBron so it's important that the Bulls try to keep to Cavs under 100 points if they can.


Game #3: Cavs win 92-87


Even though they lost, this game was also impressive by the Bulls. Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah all did not play and yet the Bulls lost by only seven points. LeBron had another good game. This time he scored 29 points with 11 rebounds and seven assists. The Bulls were actually winning 78-76 with 6:11 left in the game. It doesn't matter that LeBron was on the bench for most of the fourth quarter....the Bulls were missing three of their best players! The Bulls are at full strength now and I think they might have won this game if no one was injured.

Game #4: Bulls win 109-108

LeBron James did not play for the Cavs. Bulls led by 12 in the third quarter but Cavs took a four point lead with less than five minutes left in the game. The Bulls retook the lead and held the Cavs scoreless in the last 1:31 of the game and won by one point. Rose scored 24 points. Noah scored 17 with 15 rebounds. The Bulls won this game but barely and LeBron was out the entire game. Not good. It's safe to say the Bulls would probably lose this game if LeBron was playing. Mo Williams had a great game scoring 35 points with six three-pointers. Antawn Jamison scored 23 points. It was a reminder that the Cavs have other players besides LeBron that the Bulls need to worry about.

The Bulls played tough with the Cavs during the four games. You can argue the Cavs would have won the series if LeBron played in the fourth game. I think the Bulls could have won the third game if Rose, Deng, and Noah were playing. The Bulls played the Cavs well during the regular season. The "experts" predicting a sweep are ignorant. This will not be a sweep. This will be an interesting #1 vs. #8 playoff series. This is really a #1 vs. a #5 because the Bulls are better than a #8 seed. If they did not get injuries to Noah, Rose, and Deng, the Bulls would not be facing the Cavs right now. If the Cavs treat the Bulls like a #8 seed, they will regret it. The Cavs need to stay focused. The worst thing they can do is worry about who they'll be facing in the second round. If they don't worry about the Bulls, there won't be a second round for them. I think this series could go at least six games. I really think LeBron is carrying the Cavs. If the Bulls can shutdown LeBron, the Bulls could do well. However, it is a concern that the Bulls nearly lost against Cleveland without LeBron and in the case of Cleveland, the loss of one player does make a huge difference. The Bulls are even capable of winning this series if Rose plays great, Noah plays great, and the Bulls shoot the ball very well.

My biggest fear may not be LeBron James at this point. I'm worried about the referees. I really think the refs are somewhat biased. James will get foul calls where there is no contact. Bulls players will get mugged under the basket and no fouls will be called. We might even see the Cleveland players flop on some plays resulting in the Bulls getting called for an offensive foul. I'm sure there will several moments in which the refs make questionable calls against the Bulls and in favor of the Cavs. My fear is that the Bulls will lose to the Cavs not because the Cavs played better but because the Cavs got the better calls by the refs. The player to watch is Derrick Rose. Last year Rose got no foul calls because he was a rookie. Now he's an all-star so he should get those calls now. However, there has been times during the regular season in which Rose got fouled and the refs didn't call it. Bulls TV announcer Stacy King has often said, "Rose is an all-star and no longer a rookie....he should be getting those calls now." Will the refs call it both ways? If they don't, it could play a huge role in the Cavs series victory.

I'm gonna say Cavs in six but I think the Bulls are definitely capable of making this series look like the Boston-Chicago series from last year only this year, the Bulls might actually finish the job.

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