When the Bears were defeated by the Panthers, they were defeated by a good team who overcame some early mistakes. The Bears lost to the Bucs. Up until 6 minutes left in the game, the Bucs only had 7 points on offense. I don't know how the Bucs were able to score 10 points in such a short amount of time. I don't really think most of the blame should go on the defense however. I blame the offense more. All they had to do was pick up one more first down and they couldn't do it. Their inability to score touchdowns in the 1st half came back to be a big factor in the loss. Also, the Bucs wouldn't have even tied the game if Kyle Orton didn't throw the ball right at Gaines Adams. Sure everyone will look at Orton's nice overall stat-line but he only had one good half. Football is a game of two halves and Orton didn't play a full 60 minute game. What you do in the 1st half is just as important as what you do in the second half. The truth is that the Bears missed three opportunities to score a touchdown in the 1st half and that ended up deciding the game. I really don't like what I see from Orton. Not only is he nothing more than a game manager, he's prone to throwing interceptions now. He needs to have a big game against Philadelphia or else put in Rex Grossman. Lovie only gave Rex three games to start the 2007 season. Orton's rope shouldn't be too much longer than Rex's.
This loss hurt emotionally. I think it might have been the first time I saw the Bears allow a game-tying touchdown with under 15 seconds left in the game. I had this bad feeling that Griese would drive the Bucs down the field and tie the game. I was hoping it was just me being too nervous but that was exactly what happened. As for the Peanut Tillman penalty, wow. One minute I'm really happy knowing that the Bears will get the ball around mid-field at the least and the next minute I feel terrible. I actually felt that the three and out would lead to a Bears win and any hope I had was gone when I found out that Peanut got penalized. The only good news is that the Packers lost. If you look at the NFC North standings, the Bears are in 2nd place and only one game out of 1st place. That gives me reason to be optimistic especially since the Bears have yet to play a divisional game. Forget the wild card....it might be easier for the Bears to win the division.
I think the Bears will beat the Eagles. I can't guarantee it but now the media is probably off the Bears bandwagon again so hopefully the Bears will play with a clip on their shoulder. This will be a home game and the Bears have proven they can win games most people don't expect them to win. This team has sometimes been a team that can't beat the team everyone expects them to beat but beats the team no one expects them to beat. Brian Westbrook might even be inactive....I see no reason why the Bears can't win. For their sake, they need to have a good game and win. It's not a must-win by any means but this is a team that should be 2-1 and could have been 3-0 right now. If the Bears really feel they should be 3-0, they need to come out and prove it. The Bears beat the Eagles last year....they can do it again. Right now, I hope the Bears are pissed. I hope they don't care who is the next team on their schedule. They turned two potential wins into losses and I bet they don't want to have a three game losing streak. I really believe this team is talented enough to beat any team on the schedule and that the only team that can beat the Bears is themselves.
After the Eagles game, the Bears face the Lions and the Falcons so a win against Eagles could be the difference between the Bears starting 4-2 and the Bears starting 3-3. 3-3 certainly wouldn't be bad but being 4-2 six weeks into the season would be very important. The Bears lost a game they should have won so the best thing for them now is to win a game that they are expected to lose. I still think this is a ten win team but they got to start winning games or else their record will say otherwise. It doesn't matter who the better team is or who had the better game. The only thing that matters is which team has more points at the end of the game. The Bears need to make sure they are that team.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Cy Young Award: Webb vs. Dempster
If you just look at W/L records, Brandon Webb edges Ryan Dempster (21-7 vs. 16-6).
However, Dempster edges Webb in ERA (3.02 vs. 3.26).
So who is having the better season? Webb has more wins but Dempster has the better ERA. Their WHIPs are nearly identical.
To find this out, I broke their ERA, WHIP, and K/9 into the 3 categories:
1. Games they won
2. Games they lost
3. Games with a No Decision
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Webb--
Stats in wins:
1.84 ERA 0.96 WHIP 6.8 K/9
Stats in losses:
8.15 ERA 2.12 WHIP 7.9 K/9
Stats in no decisions:
3.12 ERA 1.19 WHIP 6.9 K/9
Dempster--
Wins:
2.24 ERA 1.13 WHIP 8.2 K/9
Losses:
5.73 ERA 1.52 WHIP 9 K/9
No decisions:
3.09 ERA 1.25 WHIP 7.48 K/9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both pitchers did very well in games they won and both pitchers did awful in games they lost. I have to say that Webb seems to be more deserving than Dempster. He has 21 wins not because he got run support but because he had a 1.84 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in those games. Dempster had a higher ERA and WHIP in his wins. You can't argue that the no decisions caused Dempster to have much fewer wins because his ERA and WHIP are higher in no decisions than they are in wins. As for Webb, he pitched well enough in those no decisions that you can't say the offense bailed him out of some extra losses.
It looks like if one of these two players wins the Cy Young Award, it will be Webb. I don't see how it will be awarded to Dempster instead of Webb.
However, Dempster edges Webb in ERA (3.02 vs. 3.26).
So who is having the better season? Webb has more wins but Dempster has the better ERA. Their WHIPs are nearly identical.
To find this out, I broke their ERA, WHIP, and K/9 into the 3 categories:
1. Games they won
2. Games they lost
3. Games with a No Decision
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Webb--
Stats in wins:
1.84 ERA 0.96 WHIP 6.8 K/9
Stats in losses:
8.15 ERA 2.12 WHIP 7.9 K/9
Stats in no decisions:
3.12 ERA 1.19 WHIP 6.9 K/9
Dempster--
Wins:
2.24 ERA 1.13 WHIP 8.2 K/9
Losses:
5.73 ERA 1.52 WHIP 9 K/9
No decisions:
3.09 ERA 1.25 WHIP 7.48 K/9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both pitchers did very well in games they won and both pitchers did awful in games they lost. I have to say that Webb seems to be more deserving than Dempster. He has 21 wins not because he got run support but because he had a 1.84 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in those games. Dempster had a higher ERA and WHIP in his wins. You can't argue that the no decisions caused Dempster to have much fewer wins because his ERA and WHIP are higher in no decisions than they are in wins. As for Webb, he pitched well enough in those no decisions that you can't say the offense bailed him out of some extra losses.
It looks like if one of these two players wins the Cy Young Award, it will be Webb. I don't see how it will be awarded to Dempster instead of Webb.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Week 2: Orton nothing more than a Game Manager
Kyle Orton is still the same Kyle Orton. He's still a guy who will not lose you any games but he won't win you any games either. Sunday's performance by Orton looked just like his performance against the Colts. Another 150 yards passing, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. I don't like Kyle Orton as a quarterback. I liked it at first because he is capable of not letting a mediocre offensive line affect him but so far the offensive line looks not too bad. What I don't like about Orton is that he's only effective from 1 to 10 yards. Orton can not complete the level 3 pass (15+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage). He over-threw Marty Booker late in the game which might have been a game winning touchdown. I can see Rex Grossman watching the film of this game making a list of all the plays he could have made that Orton didn't. I say give Orton one more start but no more if he continues to look average. Grossman may throw the occasional interception, but he will score touchdowns and will pass for well over 200 yards every game.
As for the game.....
I don't think the Bears "blew" it. Yeah they were up 17-3 but think about how they got that lead. Seven points came from the blocked punt and seven more points were set-up by the Peanut Tillman interception. The Carolina defense had a good game even though the scoreboard said otherwise in the 3rd quarter. I wasn't really surprised that the Bears offense didn't score any more points because special teams and defense got them 14 out of the 17 points. The reason the score was 17-3 is because the Panthers played poorly in the 1st half. Too many penalties by them killed most of their drives. In the second half, the Panthers made less mistakes and won the game. The Panthers won the game. I don't think the Bears lost it. They were fortunate to have a 14 point lead to begin with. It's too bad that there was still plenty of time left in the game. I don't blame Greg Olsen by the way. I don't know if I should fault him for the first fumble or not but I definitely can't fault him for the second fumble. Panthers safety Chris Harris is one of the best at stripping the ball. He makes players fumble. It's not like Olsen gave the ball to Harris on a silver platter. Harris forced it out of his hands. He led the league last year in forcing fumbles so I don't blame Olsen for that.
I am disappointed the Bears lost a game they could have won, but I don't think it was a game they SHOULD have won. The Panthers played better. However, that doesn't mean the results will be the same if these two teams meet again in the playoffs. The Bears know that penalties and turnovers loses games and now they will try to correct them. That's the only good thing about losses....you see your flaws easier and you know what you have to do to win the next game. Winning two games on the road against two SUPER BOWL contenders is really hard. The Panthers beat a really good Chargers team in week one and the Bears beat a Colts team that was able to beat the Vikings this week in the H.H.H. Dome. The Vikings are considered (not by me) the best team in the division so I like the fact the Bears are already up 1-0 in common opponents. Big win against a good Colts team and a close loss to a good Panther team with both games on the road....I am fine with the way the Bears season has started. I have very little doubt that this team will be in the playoffs and I really think this team is capable of winning it all.
As for the game.....
I don't think the Bears "blew" it. Yeah they were up 17-3 but think about how they got that lead. Seven points came from the blocked punt and seven more points were set-up by the Peanut Tillman interception. The Carolina defense had a good game even though the scoreboard said otherwise in the 3rd quarter. I wasn't really surprised that the Bears offense didn't score any more points because special teams and defense got them 14 out of the 17 points. The reason the score was 17-3 is because the Panthers played poorly in the 1st half. Too many penalties by them killed most of their drives. In the second half, the Panthers made less mistakes and won the game. The Panthers won the game. I don't think the Bears lost it. They were fortunate to have a 14 point lead to begin with. It's too bad that there was still plenty of time left in the game. I don't blame Greg Olsen by the way. I don't know if I should fault him for the first fumble or not but I definitely can't fault him for the second fumble. Panthers safety Chris Harris is one of the best at stripping the ball. He makes players fumble. It's not like Olsen gave the ball to Harris on a silver platter. Harris forced it out of his hands. He led the league last year in forcing fumbles so I don't blame Olsen for that.
I am disappointed the Bears lost a game they could have won, but I don't think it was a game they SHOULD have won. The Panthers played better. However, that doesn't mean the results will be the same if these two teams meet again in the playoffs. The Bears know that penalties and turnovers loses games and now they will try to correct them. That's the only good thing about losses....you see your flaws easier and you know what you have to do to win the next game. Winning two games on the road against two SUPER BOWL contenders is really hard. The Panthers beat a really good Chargers team in week one and the Bears beat a Colts team that was able to beat the Vikings this week in the H.H.H. Dome. The Vikings are considered (not by me) the best team in the division so I like the fact the Bears are already up 1-0 in common opponents. Big win against a good Colts team and a close loss to a good Panther team with both games on the road....I am fine with the way the Bears season has started. I have very little doubt that this team will be in the playoffs and I really think this team is capable of winning it all.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Bears win wasn't an upset!
Ok...maybe it was a small upset, but the Bears didn't do anything I didn't think they were capable of.
1. Kyle Orton- No turnovers, no touchdowns, and 150 passing yards....pretty much what I expected. He's a game manager.
2. Matt Forte- Didn't really expect 120+ yards rushing including a 50 yard run that could have been a 99 yard run if he started at the one but I knew Forte was capable of it. I've been saying he looks like another Thomas Jones....maybe even better. I am more convinced now that the Bears cut Benson not because of his legal problems but because Forte is a better player.
3. The Defense- How can you call the defense a surprise? What they did was more of an expectation. Creating turnovers, forcing 4th downs, and creating points is their game. I like the fact Indy had to settle for a field goal 2 times. Only one offensive touchdown by Indy. The Bears had two offensive touchdowns.
The only big surprise for me was that the offensive line did a really good job. They opened a lot of holes for Forte and Orton got sacked only once I think.
I said before the season that this is an 11-5 team. I was wrong....this is a 12-4 team. They played the way I wanted them to play and if they keep playing like this, book your tickets to Tampa right now. The Bears win by winning the turnover battle and running the ball and they executed both of them perfectly. This looks like a double digit win team not a 6-10 team like so many of the "experts" have predicted.That being said, it was just one game. As much as I want to say the doubters, "Preseason is meaningless....you were wrong about the Bears being a terrible team", all that win on Sunday means is that the Bears won't go 0-16. What I'm trying to say is that the Bears need to play like that every game. They need to run the ball, they need to protect the ball, and they need to take away the ball. If they can't do that next week, they might lose. They have to be consistent. They showed up last night, but they have to show up again next week and do the same thing. This is the NFL. Any team can beat any team. If the Bears don't play well, they probably won't win. The Falcons killed a decent Lions team. The Chiefs nearly beat the Patriots (being Brady-less is no excuse). The Bears can be a 12-4 team and I think they proved to everyone that they can, but they need to play good football every week. A great start but it is nothing more than that right now.
1. Kyle Orton- No turnovers, no touchdowns, and 150 passing yards....pretty much what I expected. He's a game manager.
2. Matt Forte- Didn't really expect 120+ yards rushing including a 50 yard run that could have been a 99 yard run if he started at the one but I knew Forte was capable of it. I've been saying he looks like another Thomas Jones....maybe even better. I am more convinced now that the Bears cut Benson not because of his legal problems but because Forte is a better player.
3. The Defense- How can you call the defense a surprise? What they did was more of an expectation. Creating turnovers, forcing 4th downs, and creating points is their game. I like the fact Indy had to settle for a field goal 2 times. Only one offensive touchdown by Indy. The Bears had two offensive touchdowns.
The only big surprise for me was that the offensive line did a really good job. They opened a lot of holes for Forte and Orton got sacked only once I think.
I said before the season that this is an 11-5 team. I was wrong....this is a 12-4 team. They played the way I wanted them to play and if they keep playing like this, book your tickets to Tampa right now. The Bears win by winning the turnover battle and running the ball and they executed both of them perfectly. This looks like a double digit win team not a 6-10 team like so many of the "experts" have predicted.That being said, it was just one game. As much as I want to say the doubters, "Preseason is meaningless....you were wrong about the Bears being a terrible team", all that win on Sunday means is that the Bears won't go 0-16. What I'm trying to say is that the Bears need to play like that every game. They need to run the ball, they need to protect the ball, and they need to take away the ball. If they can't do that next week, they might lose. They have to be consistent. They showed up last night, but they have to show up again next week and do the same thing. This is the NFL. Any team can beat any team. If the Bears don't play well, they probably won't win. The Falcons killed a decent Lions team. The Chiefs nearly beat the Patriots (being Brady-less is no excuse). The Bears can be a 12-4 team and I think they proved to everyone that they can, but they need to play good football every week. A great start but it is nothing more than that right now.
Is Soriano a bust for the Cubs so far?
I think so.
Look at his recent stats:
2006 (with WASH): 46 HR 95 RBI 67 BB 41 SB .277 BA .351 OBP .560 SLG .283 ISO
2007 (with CUBS): 33 HR 70 RBI 31 BB 19 SB .299 BA .337 OBP .560 SLG .261 ISO
2008 (with CUBS): 27 HR 69 RBI 35 BB 19 SB .286 BA .344 OBP .548 SLG .262 ISO
He was a 40-40 guy with Washington. He hasn't even been a 20-20 guy with the Cubs. He had 41 SBs in 2006. He has 38 SBs in the last two years combined. Soriano was paid to be a top 5 OF in the ML. Is he?
Among MLB outfielders with at least 400 plate appearances:
-Soriano is ranked 29th in batting average
- Soriano is ranked 39th in OBP
- Soriano is ranked 20th in stolen bases
- Soriano is ranked 12th in Home Runs
- Soriano is ranked 8th in SLG
- Soriano is ranked 32nd in RBI
- Soriano is ranked 36th in runs
- Soriano is ranked 51st in walks (very low for a leadoff man)
- Soriano is ranked 46th in pitches per plate appearance
- Soriano is ranked 32nd in extra base hits
- Soriano is ranked 35th in total bases
- Soriano is ranked 39th in BB/PA
- Soriano is ranked 51st in BB/K
- Soriano is ranked 37th in Runs Created
- Soriano is ranked 6th in Isolated Power
How about among MLB leadoff men with at least 400 PAs:
- 10th in BA
- 13th in OBP
- 1st in SLG
- 7th in Ks
- 3rd in HRs
- 12th in runs
- 3rd in RBIs
- 12th in stolen bases
- 15th in walks
- 12th in Pitches/PA
- 7th in extra base hits
- 12th in BB/PA
- 17th in BB/K
- 11th in Runs Created
- 1st in ISOP
So the only good things Soriano does as a leadoff man is hit home runs, drive in runs, and has the highest isolated power. Power is the last thing you expect from a leadoff man. You want him to work the count, get on-base, steal bases, and score runs. Soriano does poor at that compared to other leadoff men. For a guy making as much as he makes, he has certainly been a bust. If the All-Star voting was up to only the coaches and players, Soriano wouldn't have made the roster. He's a solid and quality player but nothing more. Ryan Ludwick is having a much better season than Soriano and Ludwick is making #411,000 this season. Soriano is making $14 million this season which is more than Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, Jason Bay, and Carlos Lee. Josh Hamilton is making just $396,830 this season.
Look at his recent stats:
2006 (with WASH): 46 HR 95 RBI 67 BB 41 SB .277 BA .351 OBP .560 SLG .283 ISO
2007 (with CUBS): 33 HR 70 RBI 31 BB 19 SB .299 BA .337 OBP .560 SLG .261 ISO
2008 (with CUBS): 27 HR 69 RBI 35 BB 19 SB .286 BA .344 OBP .548 SLG .262 ISO
He was a 40-40 guy with Washington. He hasn't even been a 20-20 guy with the Cubs. He had 41 SBs in 2006. He has 38 SBs in the last two years combined. Soriano was paid to be a top 5 OF in the ML. Is he?
Among MLB outfielders with at least 400 plate appearances:
-Soriano is ranked 29th in batting average
- Soriano is ranked 39th in OBP
- Soriano is ranked 20th in stolen bases
- Soriano is ranked 12th in Home Runs
- Soriano is ranked 8th in SLG
- Soriano is ranked 32nd in RBI
- Soriano is ranked 36th in runs
- Soriano is ranked 51st in walks (very low for a leadoff man)
- Soriano is ranked 46th in pitches per plate appearance
- Soriano is ranked 32nd in extra base hits
- Soriano is ranked 35th in total bases
- Soriano is ranked 39th in BB/PA
- Soriano is ranked 51st in BB/K
- Soriano is ranked 37th in Runs Created
- Soriano is ranked 6th in Isolated Power
How about among MLB leadoff men with at least 400 PAs:
- 10th in BA
- 13th in OBP
- 1st in SLG
- 7th in Ks
- 3rd in HRs
- 12th in runs
- 3rd in RBIs
- 12th in stolen bases
- 15th in walks
- 12th in Pitches/PA
- 7th in extra base hits
- 12th in BB/PA
- 17th in BB/K
- 11th in Runs Created
- 1st in ISOP
So the only good things Soriano does as a leadoff man is hit home runs, drive in runs, and has the highest isolated power. Power is the last thing you expect from a leadoff man. You want him to work the count, get on-base, steal bases, and score runs. Soriano does poor at that compared to other leadoff men. For a guy making as much as he makes, he has certainly been a bust. If the All-Star voting was up to only the coaches and players, Soriano wouldn't have made the roster. He's a solid and quality player but nothing more. Ryan Ludwick is having a much better season than Soriano and Ludwick is making #411,000 this season. Soriano is making $14 million this season which is more than Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, Jason Bay, and Carlos Lee. Josh Hamilton is making just $396,830 this season.
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