Sunday, December 20, 2009

The Cubs should have kept Milton Bradley

I'm saying this right now: Milton Bradley will hit good for the Seattle
Mariners and the Cubs offense will struggle in 2010 like they did in 2009. Milton Bradley hit .321 with a .436 OBP and a .563 SLG in 2008 with the Texas Rangers. According to Bill James, Bradley was one of just two American League hitters in 2008 who had an OBP over .400 and a SLG of .500 or more. The other was J.D. Drew of the Boston Red Sox who had a .408 OBP and a .519 SLG. However Drew's batting average was .280 that year which means Bradley was the only AL player that year to achieve the coveted .300/.400/.500 slash (BA/OBP/SLG). 2008 may have been Bradley's best season but certainly not Bradley's only good year. Bradley had an OPS over .800 in five of the previous six seasons before joining the Cubs. In fact, Bradley's OPS of .775 in 2009 with the Cubs was his lowest OPS since it was .722 in 2002. Yes that's right...2002. The most encouraging parts of Bradley's 2009 season with the Cubs was that his .378 OBP was actually above his career average of .371 and he had 470+ plate appearances in back-to-back years for the first time in his career. He also appeared in 120+ games in back-to-back years which is another career first. The Cubs kept Bradley healthy for the most part which is something he has struggled with for his whole career. In fact, Bradley was suspended on September 20, 2009 and ended up missing 16 games after he played his last game on September 17. Had he played in those 16 games, he would have played in 140 games for the first time since he played in 141 games in 2004.

I know Bradley had off and on the field issues with the Cubs. I know part of the reasons he failed is because he couldn't handle the pressure from the Chicago fans and media. However, the Cubs invested so much into him that I think they should have given him another chance. The pressure is not the only reason Bradley was frustrated. It was also because the Cubs were losing and he was hitting only .196 in the month of September. Bradley hit .308 with a .911 OPS in August. If he had continued to hit that well and the Cubs were still fighting for first place in September, maybe Bradley would be a lot more happy and maybe he would still be on the Cubs right now. But that didn't happen hence why Milton Bradley is on Mariners right now. If it did happen, I have no doubts Bradley would still be on the team right now. I think the team, the fans, and the media wanted to blame someone for the disappointing Cubs season in which they failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006 so they blamed Milton Bradley even though he's just one guy on a team of 25 players. I think all it would have taken was Bradley to be hitting decent and for the Cubs to be winning for Bradley to be still on the team. But again, that didn't happen and you can't play the what-if game.

What bothers me just as much as the Cubs giving up on Bradley too soon is who they actually got from the Seattle Mariners. The media and fans have praised the trade because the Cubs not only got rid of Bradley but were able to save about $6 million. The bad news is that the player they got in return is Carlos Silva. I'm going to ignore the fact that the Cubs owe Silva $16 million after the Mariners provided the Cubs with $9 million to help pay for the remaining $25 million left on Silva's contract. What bothers me more than that is that Silva hasn't been very good lately and that's saying it nicely. Silva had a 8.60 ERA in 30.1 innings in 2009. People have said that Silva was hurt during that year and that I should not get too concerned about that year so I won't. Instead, I'll bring up his 2008 season in which he went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA in 28 starts. And I thought Jason Marquis's 14-16 season with a 6.02 ERA in the year before he joined the Cubs was bad. 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA?! And the Mariners gave this guy a $48 million, four year contract? Wow and it's not even like he was very good before he joined the Mariners. In the season before the Mariners signed him, he went 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA with the Minnesota Twins. That's not a bad year but it is not the year that should make you want to spend $48 million on the guy. I'm guessing that Seattle thought he would pitch a lot better the next season but clearly that did not happen. The Cubs saved $6 million but now they got a terrible pitcher. If the Cubs are content with saving $6 million, they should make sure Silva does not pitch a single inning for the Cubs. Seriously. Have him clean the clubhouse or something. Have him go to Dunkin' Donuts to pick up some donuts for Jim Hendry. Just don't have him pitch...at all.

It's early so I have no idea how this will turn out but right now, I'm worried. Something I have not mentioned yet is that the Cubs didn't exactly have a great offense last year. Bradley's departure leaves the Cubs with just three starters who had a OBP of .350 or higher in 2009. The World Series Champion New York Yankees had eight starters with an OBP of .350 of higher in 2009. Plus, Bradley is a switch-hitter and the Cubs wanted more players capable of hitting left-handed in the lineup so there is another problem the Cubs will need to fix. Meanwhile, the pitching looked really solid last year and the Cubs might have potentially weakened that department by adding one of the worst pitchers in baseball. So really this helps the Cubs get rid of a player they no longer wanted and saved them some money but really I can't see how the Cubs are more likely to win the World Series now than they were last week. They need to make some moves and add some more players. We'll see what happens and it should be another "interesting" season like always. But pay close attention to the Cubs' offense and what Bradley is doing in Seattle. Hopefully Bradley won't have a .900 OPS and the Cubs won't be saying, "Wow, it would be really nice to have Milton Bradley right now." Don't think for one second that the Cubs will rather have no off the field problems than a productive player. Manny Ramirez of the Los Angeles Dodgers is usually causing trouble but as long as he is hitting 35 home runs and driving in 100 runs, not many people in Los Angeles really cares. Let's just hope all goes well in Chicago this year and that Silva stays at least 100 feet away from the pitcher's mound.

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