Breaking Down Derrek Lee's Home Runs in 2009

Derrek Lee hit 35 home runs in 2009. Alone that looks impressive but how impressive is it really? One of the problem with baseball statistics is that they show you how much but it doesn't show how meaningful it is. Just by looking at the home run total, you can't tell how many of those 35 home runs occurred in close games and how many of them were hit in blow-outs. So I decided to break up his home runs and see which ones were actually useful and which were meaningless.

NOTE: Let me briefly describe the meaning of some of the following terms. Anytime I use the word "clutch", it means 7th inning or later. A rally home run would be a home run hit that results in the team trailing by 3 runs or less. An insurance home run would be a home run hit with a 3 run lead or less. A game-changing home run is any home run that gives the team the lead or ties the game. A low value home run is a home run hit with the team up by four runs or more or a home run that results in the team still trailing by four or more runs. A game winning home run is a home run that puts the team in the lead for the remainder of the game. And finally a meaningless home run is any home run hit in a loss or a home run in a win that was not really needed in order to win (the last part is somewhat of a judgment call).

Now that you know what each term means, here are the numbers I got for Lee:

Total Home Runs- 35

Home Runs in wins- 26
Home Runs in losses- 9

Game Winning Home Runs- 10
Game Changing Home Runs- 17
Clutch Game Changing Home Runs- 3
Rally Home Runs- 6
Meaningless Rally Home Run- 4
Insurance Home Run- 6
Clutch Insurance Home Runs- 3
Low Value Home Runs- 6
Meaningful Low Value Home Runs- 1
Meaningless Home Runs- 14

Solo Home Runs- 21
Two-run Home Runs- 9
Three-run Home Runs- 3
Grand Slams- 2

First of all, the 26 home runs in wins and nine home runs in losses does not mean the Cubs were 26-9 when Lee hit a home run. There were a few times in 2009 when Lee hit two home runs in one game.

I have determined that Lee hit 14 meaningless home runs which means 21 of his 35 home runs were meaningful in helping the Cubs win. The number that is very interesting is that Lee hit 17 home runs that either tied the game or gave the Cubs the lead. Three of them came in the 7th inning or later and 10 of them ending up producing the game winning runs. 60% of Lee's home runs were solo home runs which seems to be normal but only 14% of Lee's home runs were either a three-run home run or a grand slam.

Another thing that I noticed was that Lee had only six low value home runs and one of them were actually meaningful. That's an encouraging stat because even without doing any research, you can see that at least four of Lee's home runs in losses could have been meaningful home runs if the rest of the team performed well enough to win the game.

Overall, I'd say Lee made a pretty good impact with his home runs. 74% of his home runs came in wins and the majority of his home runs were meaningful which are stats you want to see when someone hits that many home runs.