Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Chicago Cubs questions (and possible answers) entering the season

If the Cubs want to be playoff contenders, they have many questions that need to be answered:

Pitching Questions:

#1. Will Mark Prior/Wade Miller be and stay healthy?
#2. Will Rich Hill avoid the sophomore slump and pitch as well as he did last year?
#3. Will pitching in different league turn Ted Lilly into an all-star pitcher (or at least a productive middle of the rotation pitcher)?
#4. Can Jason Marquis bounce back after having the worst season in his career?
#5. Will Ryan Dempster be the closer this year and have a ERA below four?
#6. Can Kerry Wood be effective again and stay healthy?

Hitting Questions:

#1. Can Cesar Izturis provide offense (like he did in 2004) as well as defense?
#2. Can Derrek Lee hit 45+ home runs (like he did in 2005) after he missed 100+ games last year?
#3. Will Alfonso Soriano provide great numbers again, or will the pressure of being the top player on a playoff contender cause him to have a disappointing year?

The Big Question:

Can the Cubs make it to the playoffs?

While I can't answer the questions now, here are the positive and negative answers to my questions:

I'll start with the negative answers:

Pitching answers (negative):

#1. Prior and Miller miss a lot of the season. Prior makes 12 starts and Miller has to pitch out of the bullpen after a long stay on the disabled list.
#2. The batters adjust to Hill after seeing him more and Hill has a disappointing year: 9-16, 4.87 ERA
#3. A new league doesn't produce new results for Lilly: 10-14, 4.45 ERA
#4. Marquis doesn't fix his problems and has another bad season: 8-17, 5.98 ERA
#5. Dempster loses his job as closer after failing to record saves early in the season: 4+ blown saves, 4.67 ERA
#6. Wood is unable to pitch frequently due to arm problems. Wood makes 13 appearances out of the bullpen.

Hitting answers (negative):

#1. Izturis struggles to produce offensively: .205 batting average, .245 on-base percentage
#2. Lee stats are not as good as they were in 2005: 28 home runs, .275 AVG
#3. Soriano has a good season but not as great as everyone was hoping for: 31 HR, 73 RBI, .262 AVG, .323 OBP

Negative answer to The Big Question:

Cubs finish 82-80, 3rd place in the NL central. No playoffs appearance for the Cubs in 2007.

And here are the positive answers:

Pitching questions (positive):

#1. Prior and Miller are healthy most of the season: Prior 15-8, 3.35 ERA; Miller 11-13, 4.12 ERA.
#2. Hill has an even better season than last year: 16-9, 3.34 ERA
#3. Lilly has the best season of his career because he no longer has to face good hitting AL teams: 17-11, 3.41 ERA
#4. Marquis rebounds nicely from his horrible 2006 season: 15-9, 3.81 ERA
#5. Dempster improves from last year's bad season: 35 saves, 3.12 ERA
#6. Wood is healthy and ends up being a key member of the Cubs bullpen: 73 GP, 3.24 ERA

Hitting answers (positive):

#1 Izturis hits pretty good for a #8 hitter: .282 AVG, .325 OBP
#2. Lee proves that he is 100% healthy: 41 HR, 113 RBI, .321 AVG
#3. Soriano shows that his 2006 season was no fluke: 48 HR, 102 RBI, 43 SB, .287 AVG

Positive answer to The Big Question:

Cubs win 95 games and finish 1st in the NL Central. Cubs make it to the playoffs.

My answers are just guesses and it is too early for my questions to be answer. I am hoping for the positive answers to happen, but I am worried that some or most of the negative answers will happen. The only way to find out is to watch the entire 2007 baseball season.

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