A good way to see if the 2007 Chicago Cubs are going to make the playoffs is to compare them to the most recent successful Cubs team. The 2003 Cubs not only made the playoffs, but they also were one win away from reaching the World Series. I decided to compare the two teams. Instead of comparing the entire team, I compared the starting line-ups and the starting rotations of both teams. I do think the bench and the bullpen are important, but a team's starters play the majority of the game (and I didn't have the time of effort to go into a huge comparison).
NOTE: The offensive starters and starting rotations I will use for the 2003 Cubs will be from the roster they had going into the playoffs. The players the Cubs acquired during the season (Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, and Randall Simon, etc) helped the Cubs get into the playoffs and into the NLCS. For the 2007 Cubs, I will create the starting line-ups and rotations using the depth chart on http://www.cubs.com/ that way I'm using an expert opinion to determine who the starters might be instead of using my opinion which will most likely end up being wrong. Stats of 2007 team are from the 2006 season.
Offensive Starters
-------------------
1st base:
Randall Simon 16 HR 72 RBI .276/.309/.434 410 AB
vs.
Derrek Lee 8 HR 30 RBI .286/.368/.474 175 AB
2nd base:
Mark Grudzielanek 3 HR 38 RBI .314/.366/.416 481 AB
vs.
Mark DeRosa 13 HR 74 RBI .296/.357/.456 520 AB
Shortstop:
Alex Gonzalez 20 HR 59 RBI .228/.295/.409 536 AB
vs.
Cezar Izturis 1 HR 18 RBI .245/.295/.318 192 AB
3rd base:
Aramis Ramirez ('03) 27 HR 106 RBI .272/.324/.465 607 AB
vs.
Aramis Ramirez ('07) 38 HR 119 RBI .291/.352/.561 594 AB
LF:
Moises Alou 22 HR 91 RBI .280/.357/.462 565 AB
vs.
Matt Murton 13 HR 62 RBI .297/.365/.444 455 AB
or
Cliff Floyd 11 HR 44 RBI .244/.324/.407 332 AB
CF.
Kenny Lofton 12 HR 46 RBI .296/.352/.450 547 AB
vs.
Alfonso Soriano 46 HR 95 RBI .277/.351/.560 647 AB
RF:
Sammy Sosa 40 HR 103 RBI .279/.358/.553 517 AB
vs.
Jacque Jones 27 HR 81 RBI .285/.334/.499 533 AB
C:
Damian Miller 9 HR 36 RBI .233/.310/.369 352 AB
vs.
Michael Barrett 16 HR 53 RBI .307/.368/.517 375 AB
Comments on the offensive starters:
It seems like the '07 team has a better offensive infield. Although Simon posted higher HR and RBI totals, notice that Lee had over 200 fewer AB. Also, Lee's AVG, OBP, and SLG are higher than Simon's. The only edge the '03 team has on the infield is Gonzalez over Izturis. Although Izturis has the higher average, Gonzalez has a better SLG and has the same OBP Izturis has. Also, DeRosa may have more power, but I think Grudzielanek may be the better hitter because he has a higher AVG and OBP. I'll say there is no edge between the two second basemen.
I have to say that the '03 team has a better hitting outfield. Soriano does have the best stats, but Alou, Sosa, and Lofton (who by the way has a better AVG and OBP than Soriano) are a better offensive group than the '07 outfield led by Soriano. Although Jones and Murton posted good numbers in '06, can they do it again in '07? I'm also worried about Floyd who had the fewest AB of the outfielders that were listed.
A big plus goes to the '07 team for having a good offensive catcher. Most teams' catchers are bottom of the order hitters, but Barrett is arguably one of the best hitting catchers in the National League. Barrett destroys Miller in AVG, OBP, and SLG and even had more AB than him.
Overall, I think the '07 team is a slightly better hitting team.
__________________________
Starting Rotation
------------------
#1:
Mark Prior ('03) 18-6 2.43 ERA 245 SO 211.3 IP
vs.
Carlos Zambrano ('07) 16-7 3.41 ERA 210 SO 214.0
#2:
Kerry Wood ('03) 14-11 3.20 ERA 266 SO 211.0 IP
vs.
Ted Lilly 15-13 4.31 ERA 160 SO 181.2 IP
#3:
Carlos Zambrano ('03) 13-11 3.11 ERA 168 SO 214.0 IP
vs.
Jason Marquis 14-16 6.02 ERA 96 SO 194.1 IP
#4:
Matt Clement 14-12 4.11 ERA 171 SO 201.7 IP
vs.
Rich Hill 6-7 4.17 ERA 77 SO 99.1 IP
#5:
Shawn Estes 8-11 5.73 ERA 103 SO 152.3 IP
vs.
Mark Prior ('07) 1-6 7.21 ERA 38 SO 43.2 IP
or
Wade Miller 0-2 4.57 ERA 20 SO 21.2 IP
Comments on the starting rotations:
Clearly the '03 team has the better starting rotation. However, the bottom of the rotation players on the '07 team could end up pitching their way into the upper half of the rotation. If healthy, Prior's stats could look more like '03 Prior and less like Estes. Hill's stats are average, but if he hadn't started the '06 season so bad, his ERA would be under four easily. I'm not sure if Miller will have a spot in the rotation, but he too could have a good season if healthy. Prior and Miller combined for 14 starts (nine for Prior and five for Miller) in 2006 so it is unfair to say that Clement and Estes were better pitchers than them just because they had better stats. I would like to see both Prior and Miller pitch 100+ innings in a season before trying to compare them to anyone.
The top half of the rotation is dominated by the '03 Cubs. Although Zambrano is a Cy Young candidate, it will be interesting to see if newcomers Lilly and Marquis are able to keep their ERA below five. Lilly is coming from the AL East that has teams like the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, so I expect his ERA to be lower in 2007. Marquis is from the NL so he has less of an excuse than Lilly. Seeing that Marquis is in the same division this year as he was last year, I don't see Marquis improving as much as Lilly. The '03 team had Prior, Wood, and Zambrano at the top of the rotation and all three of them:
a.) had 14 or more wins
b.) had an ERA below 3.50
c.) pitched over 210 innings
Those achievements make them more impressive than the 2007's potential top three starting pitchers.
The '03 team had three potential #1 starters (Prior, Wood, and Zambrano) and Clement could have been easily a #2 or a #3 on another team. Overall, the '03 team had the better pitching and their pitching helped get them to the NLCS in 2003.
_______________________________
I am not going to make a prediction of who will end up being the better team. This is only a comparison. There is no way of telling whether the 2007 Cubs will finish first or last. No one knows who will get injured and who will be traded. The only way to find out is to wait until the end of the 2007 season.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment