Friday, February 16, 2007

NBA was probably right for not picking Thomas, Sefolosha

I was disappointed when I saw that Chicago Bulls rookies Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha were not picked to be on the rookie team for tonight's Rookie Challenge All-Star game. I was even more upset for Tyrus because he was the fourth pick overall in last year's draft. Only nine players were selected to play for the rookie team, but I thought Thabo and Tyrus were good enough to be one of those nine players. I was wrong. Thabo and Tyrus were left off for a good reason. I checked the stats of the rookies playing in tonight's game and I compared them to Thabo and Tyrus's stats. Because they play on a playoff team, Thabo and Tyrus's minutes per game are lower than anyone on the rookie team. Therefore their stats aren't as good as the players selected to be on the rookie team. So, I decided to research everyone's stats per 48 minutes. Looking at their stats per 48 minutes would tell me how they would do had they played the entire 48 minutes of a basketball game. The problem with stats per game is that if a person scores four points in four minutes in a game, he would have only four points per game. However, he would have 48 points per 48 minutes. It is unfair to call someone better if he scored 23 points in 35 minutes and the other person scored 20 points in 20 minutes. The person with 20 points played 15 less minutes than the person with 23 points. So, by adjusting the stats to stats per 48 minutes, everyone had an equal opportunity.
Tryus is a forward so I compared him to the other rookie forwards and Thabo is a guard so I compared him to the other rookie guards.
NOTE: The following stats are all stats per 48 minutes. For example, points is points per 48 minutes, rebounds is rebounds per 48 minutes, etc. (* means on rookie team)
Forwards:
*Andrea Bargnani 21.5 points 7.0 rebounds 1.6 assists
*Paul Millsap 18.6 points 13.6 rebounds 1.9 assists
*Adam Morrison 19.2 points 4.8 rebounds 3.3 assists
*Jorge Garbajosa 14.3 points 8.6 rebounds 3.4 assists
Tyrus Thomas 16.2 points 12.9 rebounds 1.9 assists
I noticed that everyone had an edge on Tyrus except for Jorge Garbajosa. Therefore, at first I thought that Tryus should have been named to the team instead of Garbajosa. Also, Tyrus was the 4th pick overall in the draft and fans might have wanted to see him. The only reason I can think of why Tryus wasn't selected was because of the slam dunk contest. Tryus is scheduled to be in the Slam Dunk contest tommorow night. The NBA might have been worried about Tryus getting hurt in the Rookie Challenge and that he would not be able to play in the Slam Dunk contest. If Tryus did get hurt, it would be very difficult for the NBA to get a good replacement in time so the contest would remain competitive. I would rather see Tyrus play in the Slam Dunk contest so I think the NBA made the right decision in not selecting Tryus to play on the rookie team.
Guards:
*Jordan Farmer 15.4 points 4.8 rebounds 6.1 assists
*Randy Foye 20.4 points 6.1 rebounds 5.6 assists
*Rudy Gay 19.6 points 7.9 rebounds 2.1 assists
*Brandon Roy 21.8 points 5.9 rebounds 4.9 assists
*Marcus Williams 20.6 points 5.9 rebounds 8.7 assists
Thabo Sefolosha 13.5 points 8.0 rebounds 3.4 assists
This comparison was not as close as I thought it would be. Thabo may be the best rebounder of the bunch, but he is not as strong in the other categories. The five guards selected are statistically better than Thabo, so I agree with the NBA on not selecting Thabo to play on the rookie team.
One more thing to mention: Tyrus and Thabo are both among the top defensive rookies in the NBA this season. However, the Rookie Challenge is more of an entertainment game than a competitive game. The defense is usually weak on both teams. Despite the game being 40 minutes instead of 48 minutes, the Sophomores beat the Rookies by a score of 142-118 in the 2004 Rookie Challenge. The last time neither team reached 100 points was in 2000 when the Rookies won 92-81 in overtime.

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